Inactivated Influenza Vaccines or Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccines? Parental Vaccine Hesitancy and Influenza Vaccine Type Preferences during COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

Seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) significantly reduces influenza-related illnesses among school-aged children, yet parental vaccine hesitancy remains a persistent challenge. Two types of SIV are available for children in Hong Kong and other locations: inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), administered through intramuscular injection, and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), administered via nasal spray. While injection or needle fears are important barriers to childhood vaccination uptake, little research has explored how vaccine hesitancy can shape parental preference for LAIV versus IIV, particularly amidst important public health events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the massive rollout of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. Our study employs a concurrent mixed-methods design to address this gap comprehensively. The quantitative part involves longitudinal surveys spanning three years, from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic periods, tracking parental vaccine hesitancy and preference for SIV types. The qualitative part involves 48 in-depth interviews, providing in-depth insights into parental preference for SIV types, underlying reasons, and corresponding values. Our quantitative analyses revealed an overall increase in parental vaccine hesitancy and preference for LAIV over IIV after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and especially after the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Further logistic regression modelling based on the cohort data showed that higher vaccine hesitancy, coupled with the COVID-19 vaccination campaign rollout, predicts a greater preference for LAIV over IIV. The qualitative analysis complements these results, highlighting that LAIV’s non-invasive nature aligns with parental values of prioritizing natural immunity and concerns about overmedication. Consequently, hesitant parents perceive LAIV as less intrusive and more acceptable, emphasizing the need for future tailored risk communication. Leveraging the higher acceptability of LAIV compared to IIV among parents with high vaccine hesitancy could promote childhood vaccination uptake.

Assessment of the impact of the Vaccine Pass Policy on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake among Chinese adults in Hong Kong (preprint)

Background: Recognising the importance of attaining high vaccine coverage to mitigate the COVID-19 impact, a Vaccine Pass scheme was implemented during and after the first large Omicron wave in Hong Kong in early 2022 requiring three doses by June 2022. We evaluated the impact of the Vaccine Pass policy on vaccine uptake in adults. Methods: We analyzed patterns in vaccine uptake and hesitancy using local data from the population vaccine registry and 32 cross-sectional surveys conducted from October 2021 to December 2022. We examined the association of Vaccine Pass phases with vaccine uptake, taking into account covariables including self-risk perception, perceived self-efficacy in preventing COVID-19 and trust in government in pandemic control as well as physical distancing measures and demographics. Findings: The uptake of primary series and third doses was significantly associated with stages of Vaccine Pass implementation, and other statistically significant drivers included age group, chronic condition, higher perceived personal susceptibility to COVID-19, higher trust in government, and higher educational attainment. Older adults ([≥]65y) were less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19, compared to adults aged 18-44 years. Interpretation: Vaccine uptake in older adults was observed to have increased by a greater extent after the policy announcement and implementation, which occurred during and after a large Omicron wave with high mortality in older ages in early 2022. Since the policy withdrawal the uptake of further booster doses has been very low in all ages. Improving voluntary booster uptake in older adults should be prioritized.

Characterizing human collective behaviours of COVID-19 in Hong Kong (preprint)

People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb COVID-19 epidemic waves since the first COVID-19 case was confirmed on 22 January 2020. People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Here, we offer a framework to evaluate interactions among individuals emotions, perception, and online behaviours in Hong Kong during the first two waves (February to June 2020) and found a strong correlation between online behaviours of Google search and the real-time reproduction numbers. To validate the model output of risk perception, we conducted 10 rounds of cross-sectional telephone surveys from February 1 through June 20 in 2020 to quantify risk perception levels over time. Compared with the survey results, the estimates of the risk perception of individuals using our network-based mechanistic model capture 80% of the trend of people risk perception (individuals who worried about being infected) during the studied period. We may need to reinvigorate the public by engaging people as part of the solution to live their lives with reduced risk.

Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong (preprint)

Community-wide social distancing has been a cornerstone of pandemic control prior to mass vaccinations. The extent to which pandemic fatigue is undermining adherence to such measures and accelerating transmission remains unclear. Using large-scale weekly telephone surveys and mobility data, we characterize the evolution of risk perception and protective behaviours in Hong Kong. We estimate a 1.5% to 5.5% reduction in population compliance with protective policies for the fourth wave (October 2020 to January 2021) versus the third wave (July to August 2020), inducing prolonged disease circulation with increased infections. Mathematical models incorporating population protective behaviours estimates that the fourth wave would have been 14% smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. Mitigating pandemic fatigue is essential in maintaining population protective behaviours for controlling COVID-19.

Universal community nucleic acid testing for COVID-19 in Hong Kong reveals insights into transmission dynamics (preprint)

Background: Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control COVID-19. In Hong Kong, a universal community testing programme (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020, to determine the prevalence of unrecognised cases and limit any remaining transmission chains. We described the utility of the UCTP in finding unrecognised cases, and analysed data from the UCTP and other sources to characterise transmission dynamics.Methods: We described the characteristics of people participating in the UCTP, and compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected by the UCTP versus those detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance. We developed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific incidence of infection and the proportion of cases detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance.Findings: 1.77 million people, 24% of the Hong Kong population, participated in the UCTP from 1 to 14 September 2020. The UCTP identified 32 new infections (1.8 per 100,000 samples tested), consisting of 29% of all local cases reported during the two-week UCTP period. Compared with the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance, the UCTP detected a higher proportion of sporadic cases (62% versus 27%, p <0.01) and identified 6 (out of 18) additional transmission chains during that period. We estimated that 27% (95% credible interval: 22%, 34%) of all infections were detected by the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance in the third wave.Interpretation: We reported empirical evidence of the utility of population-wide COVID-19 testing in detecting unrecognised infections and transmission chains. Around three quarters of infections have not been identified through existing surveillance approaches including contact tracing.

Universal Community Nucleic Acid Testing for COVID-19 in Hong Kong Reveals Insights into Transmission Dynamics (preprint)

Background: Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control COVID-19. In Hong Kong, a universal community testing programme (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020, to determine the prevalence of unrecognised cases and limit any remaining transmission chains. We described the utility of the UCTP in finding unrecognised cases, and analysed data from the UCTP and other sources to characterise transmission dynamics.Methods: We described the characteristics of people participating in the UCTP, and compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected by the UCTP versus those detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance. We developed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific incidence of infection and the proportion of cases detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance.Findings: 1.77 million people, 24% of the Hong Kong population, participated in the UCTP from 1 to 14 September 2020. The UCTP identified 32 new infections (1.8 per 100,000 samples tested), consisting of 29% of all local cases reported during the two-week UCTP period. Compared with the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance, the UCTP detected a higher proportion of sporadic cases (62% versus 27%, p <0.01) and identified 6 (out of 18) additional transmission chains during that period. We estimated that 27% (95% credible interval: 22%, 34%) of all infections were detected by the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance in the third wave.Interpretation: We reported empirical evidence of the utility of population-wide COVID-19 testing in detecting unrecognised infections and transmission chains. Around three quarters of infections have not been identified through existing surveillance approaches including contact tracing.Funding Statement: This project was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (grant no. COVID190118).Declaration of Interests: BJC consults for Roche, Sanofi Pasteur, GSK and Moderna. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: Our project was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong/Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (HKU/HA HKW IRB).

Community Psychological And Behavioural Responses To Coronavirus Disease 2019 Over One Year Of The Pandemic In 2020 In Hong Kong (preprint)

Background: Monitoring community psychological and behavioural responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is important for informing policy making and risk communication to sustain public compliance with challenging precautionary behaviours and mitigating the psychological impacts. Methods: Monthly telephone surveys in January-April 2020 and then weekly surveys from May through December 2020 were conducted to monitor changes in public risk perception of COVID-19, personal efficacy in self-protection, confidence in the government’s ability to control the pandemic, precautionary behaviours, perceived impact of precautionary behaviours, psychological fatigue and distress in Hong Kong, and examine their inter-relationships. Results: While worry about contracting COVID-19 increased, personal efficacy and confidence in the government declined as the community incidence of COVID-19 increased. The public maintained high compliance with most precautionary behaviours throughout but relaxed behaviours that were more challenging when disease incidence declined. Public confidence in the government was persistently low throughout, of which, a lower level was associated with more psychological fatigue, lower compliance with precautionary behaviours and greater psychological distress. Perceived greater negative impact of precautionary behaviours was also associated with more psychological fatigue which in turn was associated with relaxation of precautionary behaviours. Female, younger and unemployed individuals reported greater psychological distress throughout different stages of the pandemic.Conclusions: Risk communication should focus on promoting confidence in self-protection and pandemic control to avoid helplessness to act when the pandemic resurges. Policy making should prioritize building public trust, enhancing support for sustaining precautionary behaviours, and helping vulnerable groups to adapt to the stress during the pandemic.

Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study (preprint)

Background: A range of public health measures have been implemented to delay and reduce local transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and there have been major changes in behaviours of the general public. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioral changes on the incidence of COVID-19 as well as on influenza virus infections which may share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. Methods: We reviewed policy interventions and measured changes in population behaviours through two telephone surveys, on January 20-23 and February 11-14. We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R_t), for COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1). Findings: COVID-19 transmissibility has remained at or below 1, indicating successful containment to date. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% confidence interval, CI: 34% to 53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, and a 33% (95% CI: 24% to 43%) reduction in transmissibility based on paediatric hospitalization rates. In the two surveys we estimated that 74.5% and 97.5% of the general adult population wore masks when going out, and 61.3% and 90.2% avoided going to crowded places, respectively. Implications: Containment measures, social distancing measures and changes in population behaviour have successfully prevented spread of COVID-19. The social distancing measures and behavioural changes led to a substantial reduction in influenza transmission in early February 2020. However, it may be challenging to avoid fatigue and sustain these measures and population behaviours as COVID-19 continues to spread globally. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong